Trump at 500 days: Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
The primary deficit (excluding interest payments) declined from 3.2% of GDP at the end of the Biden administration to 2.7% in 2025 and likely 2.5% in 2026.
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A Massive Transfer of Income
Brazil's combination of expansionary fiscal policies and high interest rates has significantly increased income transfers across the economy. According to our estimates, indebted households paid roughly BRL 770...
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BRAZIL – Public Sector Spending Increased Almost 30% in Last 6 years
It is misleading to attribute to advocates of fiscal adjustment the intention of cutting publicspending. The pace of expenditure growth in recent years has been so accelerated that...
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BRAZIL: The Labor Supply Shortage Is Structural
Demographics, characterized by population aging, have substantially reduced the availability ofpeople fit to work. If we consider a working-age population composed only of individuals between14 and 64 years...
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Brazil Elections – Far Beyond Voting Intentions (3/3): Brazilians Are Conservative
Brazilians are predominantly conservative. Most people tend to uphold traditional valuesrelated to religion and family, as well as stereotypical views about gender roles, while showinglimited acceptance of minorities...
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Brazil Elections: Far Beyond Voting Intentions (2/3): What Concerns Brazilian Voters
We outline below the key issues likely to dominate the 2026 electoral cycle and assess how eachmay shape electoral outcomes.
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Brazil Elections – Beyond Voting Intentions (1/3): Polarization and Pessimism
Current political polarization and pessimism may be linked to the discontent of a significantportion of the population that sees itself as a loser in a game arbitrated by...
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US Inflation: CPI and PCE Deflator Send Conflicting Signals
Recent US inflation data have been pointing in different directions. While the CPI continues to ease, the PCE Deflator, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, remains more resilient...
Read moreLegislative Agenda
The focus of parliamentary activities in 2026 will be directed toward the elections. On one hand,the government will seek to approve the end of the 6x1 work schedule,...
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