Hyperscalers: How Much Is Too Much?
Just 10 of the most relevant companies among the so-called hyperscalers in the United States are set to invest close to a total of USD 1 trillion in...
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How AI Is Impacting Macroeconomics: The Cases of Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Ireland and the Netherlands.
Markets appear increasingly uneasy about the impact of hyperscalers’ outsized demand for resources on long-term interest rates. The challenge seems more significant in the United States than in...
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Latam Ex Brazil – A Favorable Outlook for the Years Ahead
In this report we present assessments and outlooks for the economies of Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. For a financial market that is mostly focused on...
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One World, Five Cycles: How Brazil, the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan Are Following Different Paths
The world's major economies are no longer moving through a synchronized business cycle. Instead, structural forces, AI-driven innovation, and oil price shocks are pushing Brazil, the United States,...
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Oil Shock and Inflation: Brazil X US
A persistently expansionary fiscal stance, a tighter output gap, and, above all, a monetary policy framework characterized by lower credibility help explain why 10-year inflation expectations have risen...
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June CPI: Disinflation Gains Momentum
Consumer inflation is expected to slow to 0.29% in June, mainly reflecting easing food inflation and the continued decline in fuel prices. Despite the short-term improvement, twelve-month inflation...
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Trump at 500 days: Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
The primary deficit (excluding interest payments) declined from 3.2% of GDP at the end of the Biden administration to 2.7% in 2025 and likely 2.5% in 2026.
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A Massive Transfer of Income
Brazil's combination of expansionary fiscal policies and high interest rates has significantly increased income transfers across the economy. According to our estimates, indebted households paid roughly BRL 770...
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BRAZIL – Public Sector Spending Increased Almost 30% in Last 6 years
It is misleading to attribute to advocates of fiscal adjustment the intention of cutting publicspending. The pace of expenditure growth in recent years has been so accelerated that...
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