A persistently expansionary fiscal stance, a tighter output gap, and, above all, a monetary policy framework characterized by lower credibility help explain why 10-year inflation expectations have risen...
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Consumer inflation is expected to slow to 0.29% in June, mainly reflecting easing food inflation and the continued decline in fuel prices. Despite the short-term improvement, twelve-month inflation...
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The primary deficit (excluding interest payments) declined from 3.2% of GDP at the end of the Biden administration to 2.7% in 2025 and likely 2.5% in 2026.
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Brazil's combination of expansionary fiscal policies and high interest rates has significantly increased income transfers across the economy. According to our estimates, indebted households paid roughly BRL 770...
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It is misleading to attribute to advocates of fiscal adjustment the intention of cutting publicspending. The pace of expenditure growth in recent years has been so accelerated that...
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Demographics, characterized by population aging, have substantially reduced the availability ofpeople fit to work. If we consider a working-age population composed only of individuals between14 and 64 years...
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Brazilians are predominantly conservative. Most people tend to uphold traditional valuesrelated to religion and family, as well as stereotypical views about gender roles, while showinglimited acceptance of minorities...
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We outline below the key issues likely to dominate the 2026 electoral cycle and assess how eachmay shape electoral outcomes.
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Current political polarization and pessimism may be linked to the discontent of a significantportion of the population that sees itself as a loser in a game arbitrated by...
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