Brazil – Weekly: 20/07 to 24/07
U.S. inflation surprised to the downside in June, while Brazil's economy showed signs of moderating growth. However, the rebound in oil prices, persistent fiscal risks, and rising inflation...
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Cost Pressures Persist
Although producer inflation eased in June as energy prices declined, underlying price pressures remain elevated. Rising import prices suggest that tariff-related cost increases continue to pass through supply...
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Inflation Eases, but Risks Remain
Consumer inflation slowed in June, reinforcing the U.S. disinflation trend. However, core inflation remains above target, suggesting the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for...
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Brazil – Weekly: 13/07 to 17/07
The sharp slowdown in Brazil's IPCA inflation in June, together with easing core inflation, strengthened expectations of a near-term Selic rate cut. However, the continuation of the easing...
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Oil Shock and Inflation: Brazil X US
A persistently expansionary fiscal stance, a tighter output gap, and, above all, a monetary policy framework characterized by lower credibility help explain why 10-year inflation expectations have risen...
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Brazil – Weekly 06/07 to 10/07
Despite the creation of only 57 thousand jobs in the U.S. in June, Treasury yields continued to move higher. Investors shifted their focus to resilient wage growth, while...
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June CPI: Disinflation Gains Momentum
Consumer inflation is expected to slow to 0.29% in June, mainly reflecting easing food inflation and the continued decline in fuel prices. Despite the short-term improvement, twelve-month inflation...
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Brazil: Forecasts June 2026
GDP growth slowing with higher inflation and lower interest rates.
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Trump at 500 days: Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing
The primary deficit (excluding interest payments) declined from 3.2% of GDP at the end of the Biden administration to 2.7% in 2025 and likely 2.5% in 2026.
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